Hurricane season is upon us again. Americans have gotten better at staying safe while a hurricane barrels by but limiting property damage is still challenging. Damage from rain and, especially, wind will likely continue to occur but state leaders, researchers and engineers have restarted discussions to build storm barriers in the Houston and Galveston Bay area that are similar to those made famous by Dutch engineers and builders. As with anything associated with Texas, Texans want to do it big and, if possible, bigger than what previous builders have done. The Ike Dike and similar designs propose constructing enormous levees and gates that close to prevent storm surge into Galveston Bay. The initial cost estimates are not cheap. Costs to build the Ike Dike are forecasted to be around $30 billion but the negative impacts of a Category 5 hurricane to the Galveston Bay and Houston Ship Channel area is estimated to be $73 billion. The math seems simple but at these mega project dollar amounts nothing is simple and nearly nothing is accurate. At the end of construction functionality is often less than what was sold while the price has increased. While a storm sure protection system seems to easily make sense on a financial basis, the variables that need to be identified, quantified and understood and then accounted for are varied and complex. It's a near impossible task that almost guarantees any solution will not measure up to it's proposed and intended value. For a research based analysis of what can and will go wrong with megaprojects, check out Bent Flyvbjerg with the University of Oxford.
Commenti