The other day after I finished playing cars with my son on the floor I decided to take a few moments to relax and stretch on the floor. I failed to identify the risk of my son doing a flying knee into my back. The flying knee occurred and I was in pain and trying not to over react. In my mind this event was an unknown unknown risk. After it happened, it turned into at least a known unknow risk. My kids, and especially my son, are predictably unpredictable. I don't know exactly what could go wrong but I know something likely will. In construction, our projects are often like this. It's our job identify and manage risk, as well as, to manage incidents if they occur.
In decision making there are three main types of risk: known, known unknown and unknown unknown. Known risks are those that are already identified, quantified and managed. A known risk might be labor rate increases. Known unknown risks are those that are identified but the probability and impact are unknown. A common example of these risks is the weather. Unknown unknown risks are not currently known and their prediction is not possible based on past and current experience. Examples of this risk might be if an illness or epidemic rendered your workforce unable to work or war (in the United States).
We can plan for and manage the first two kinds of risk but how do we manage unknown unknowns? How do we manage something we don't know anything about or when it might happen. We can't until they happen and aren't risks but actual events or incidents. That being said, we can create fewer unknown unknowns by developing better processes, using better tools and training our teams. It's not possible but our goal should be to identify and manage as many known, and to a lesser extent, risks as possible. Make known unknown risks into known risks and work to make unknown unknown risks into known unknown and even known risks. Do this and your safety, quality and financial metrics will improve.
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